The eurozone crisis might make the nationalists’ plans for loosening Scotland’s ties to the UK look increasingly unattractive
Things have been going Alex Salmond’s way since the Scottish National Party landslide in the Holyrood elections in May 2011. His personal popularity ratings are still higher than those of all the rival party leaders put together. The anti-nationalist parties have yet to come up with a coherent campaign for the forthcoming independence referendum. The nearest they have come so far is a ‘tea and biscuits’ summit at the Edinburgh home of the former Labour chancellor Alistair Darling. It included representatives, but not leaders, of the Scottish opposition parties.
Prime Minister David Cameron’s own personal campaign to save the UK, launched in Scotland in February, petered out in confusion when he appeared to promise greater powers for the Scottish Parliament than his own Scottish Conservative Party colleagues were prepared to concede. It was beginning to look like plain sailing for the SNP in the run-up to the referendum on independence in autumn 2014. Commentators were beginning to write the UK’s obituary. But perhaps they should hit the pause button, because, beneath the surface, there are serious problems facing the SNP’s project to end the UK.
In the May local elections, Labour stormed to victory in Glasgow and fended off the SNP in Edinburgh and Aberdeen, dashing the SNP’s hopes of becoming the largest party in all three cities. This was more of a presentational setback for Salmond than a psephological one – the SNP increased its overall share of the Scottish vote – but it does suggest that the party’s momentum may be fading.
Critics blamed Salmond’s apparent willingness to lobby on behalf of Rupert Murdoch in his bid to take over BSkyB. The first minister insists that he was only lobbying for Scottish jobs, but few outside the party believe him. The new Labour leader, Johann Lamont, scored an early success at First Minister’s Questions, claiming that Salmond had been ‘played for a fool’ by Murdoch. But a much more worrying problem is emerging on the referendum timetable than embarrassment over the first minister’s choice of friends.
The possible departure of Greece from the eurozone might not appear to have any immediate consequences for Scotland, but the insecurity and turmoil that would result could make it very difficult to persuade Scots that they should leave the UK. Of course, the SNP is not proposing to leave the sterling zone and insists that Scotland would keep the pound until there could be a referendum on joining the euro. But every Scottish voter has heard the SNP’s slogan ‘Independence in Europe’ and understands that the party sees Scotland’s future lying in Europe and not in the UK.
But Europe isn’t looking such a good bet at the moment. Even if Greece remains in the eurozone, the next two years are beginning to resemble the 2008 financial crisis, except this time the focus will not be on failing banks, but failing countries. Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain are suffering crippling recessions and face default. In times of uncertainty, people tend to stick with what they know. Right now, the UK is beginning to look like a haven from the storm, not least because the UK’s credit rating is the best in the EU.
Delaying the independence referendum until autumn 2014 might have seemed like a good idea because it would have given the SNP time to win over wavering Scots. But events in Europe are starting to overshadow the debate on Scotland’s constitutional future.
Which might just explain why Cameron has withdrawn his objection to the delay, saying, in Glasgow parlance: ‘Bring it on if you think you’re hard enough.’
This article first appeared in the June issue of Public Finance
I think Iain is more than aware that the economies of Greece and Scotland are very different. Independence (amongst many other positive things) is about being able to take more actions to strengthen your own economy. Aside from lax tax laws, not so evident in Scotland the last time I looked at my pay slip, Greece is being seriously damaged by the austerity measures imposed on it by the larger Eurozone countries. It could be argued the same is currently happening on a smaller scale in Scotland to meet UK Coalition (parties not voted for in Scotland) fiscal targets – so his argument does not really hold up – aside from the usual “Let’s scare the Scots” into not seeking Independence.
I agree with Martin, the two situations are very different. You can’t look at Greece as having any bearing on what could or could not happen to Scotland.
Greece’s problems are greatly exacerbated by not having control of a national currency. A better example is Iceland, which was able to effectively devalue, restructure, and is navigating out of crisis with a lot less pain;
The perilous state of Greece financially may not scare Scots but the prospect of England, Wales and Northern Ireland refusing to bank roll Scotland in a Sterling Zone crisis caused by Scottish banks should. We (Scots) just won’t get away with forcing a split with the union but at the same time expecting our former partners to bail out an independent Scotland. The lesson that we were incredibly fortunate not to be independent when our banks went bust needs to sink in. To believe half the spin we’re getting from the SNP on these critical issues you would have to be on some sort of hallucinogenic high! Lets hope its the SNP who are forced to wake up to the realities and not us Scots.